Robert L. Winkler

59 catalog papers. Identity-linked publications and additional name matches are distinguished below.

ORCID: 0000-0002-1051-6639

Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708

Publications

• Multivariate Almost Stochastic Dominance: Transfer Characterizations and Sufficient Conditions Under Dependence Uncertainty — Operations Research 2025
• Extremizing and Antiextremizing in Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts — Operations Research 2022
• Technical Note—Ranking Distributions When Only Means and Variances Are Known — Operations Research 2022
• When to Abandon a Research Project and Search for a New One — Operations Research 2018
• Between First- and Second-Order Stochastic Dominance — Management Science 2017
• Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity to Bracketing, and Sharing Business Payoffs — Operations Research 2017
• Generalized Almost Stochastic Dominance — Operations Research 2015
• Is It Better to Average Probabilities or Quantiles? — Management Science 2013
• Multiattribute One-Switch Utility — Management Science 2012
• On multivariate quantiles under partial orders — The Annals of Statistics 2011 (name-matched, not ORCID-linked)
• Evaluating Quantile Assessments — Operations Research 2009
• Sensitivity to Distance and Baseline Distributions in Forecast Evaluation — Management Science 2009
• Multiattribute Utility Satisfying a Preference for Combining Good with Bad — Management Science 2009
• Scoring Rules, Generalized Entropy, and Utility Maximization — Operations Research 2008
• Probability Elicitation, Scoring Rules, and Competition Among Forecasters — Management Science 2007
• The Optimizer’s Curse: Skepticism and Postdecision Surprise in Decision Analysis — Management Science 2006
• Risky Choices and Correlated Background Risk — Management Science 2005
• Modifying Variability and Correlations in Winner-Take-All Contests — Operations Research 2004
• Assessing Dependence: Some Experimental Results — Management Science 2000
• An Assessment of the Risk of Chronic Lung Injury Attributable to Long-Term Ozone Exposure — Operations Research 1995
• Evaluating Probabilities: Asymmetric Scoring Rules — Management Science 1994
• Evaluating and Combining Physicians' Probabilities of Survival in an Intensive Care Unit — Management Science 1993
• Aggregating Point Estimates: A Flexible Modeling Approach — Management Science 1993
• Repeated Gambles, Learning, and Risk Aversion — Management Science 1992
• Sensitivity of Weights in Combining Forecasts — Operations Research 1992
• Data Base Error Trapping and Prediction — Journal of the American Statistical Association 1991
• Decision Modeling and Rational Choice: AHP and Utility Theory — Management Science 1990
• Unanimity and Compromise Among Probability Forecasters — Management Science 1990
• All Roads Lead to Risk Preference: A Turnpike Theorem for Conditionally Independent Returns — Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1989
• Separating Probability Elicitation from Utilities — Journal of the American Statistical Association 1988
• Expert Resolution — Management Science 1986
• Limits for the Precision and Value of Information from Dependent Sources — Operations Research 1985
• Comment Bayesian Model Building and Forecasting — Journal of the American Statistical Association 1985
• Evaluating Decision Strategies for Equity of Public Risks — Operations Research 1985
• Probability Forecasting in Meteorology — Journal of the American Statistical Association 1984
• Analysis of Alternative National Ambient Carbon Monoxide Standards — Management Science 1984
• Learning, Experimentation, and the Optimal Output Decisions of a Competitive Firm — Management Science 1982
• Risk Sharing and Group Decision Making — Management Science 1981
• Informational Differences Between Limit and Market Orders for a Market Maker — Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1981
• Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources — Management Science 1981
• Interactive Elicitation of Opinion for a Normal Linear Model — Journal of the American Statistical Association 1980
• Performance-Based Incentive Plans — Management Science 1980
• Warner's Randomized Response Model: A Bayesian Approach — Journal of the American Statistical Association 1979
• Adaptive Forecasting Models Based on Predictive Distributions — Management Science 1978
• The Role of Attitude Toward Risk in Strictly Competitive Decision-Making Situations — Management Science 1978
• Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions — Management Science 1976
• Nonstationarity and Portfolio Choice — Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1976
• OPTIMAL SPECULATION AGAINST AN EFFICIENT MARKET* — The Journal of Finance 1976
• Comment — Journal of the American Statistical Association 1975
• A BAYESIAN MODEL FOR PORTFOLIO SELECTION AND REVISION — The Journal of Finance 1975
• Bayesian Models for Forecasting Future Security Prices — Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1973
• Comment — Journal of the American Statistical Association 1972
• The Determination of Partial Moments — Management Science 1972
• A Decision-Theoretic Approach to Interval Estimation — Journal of the American Statistical Association 1972
• Probabilistic Prediction: Some Experimental Results — Journal of the American Statistical Association 1971
• Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors — Journal of the American Statistical Association 1969
• The Consensus of Subjective Probability Distributions — Management Science 1968
• The Quantification of Judgment: Some Methodological Suggestions — Journal of the American Statistical Association 1967
• The Assessment of Prior Distributions in Bayesian Analysis — Journal of the American Statistical Association 1967