The selection of delphi panels for strategic planning purposes

Abstract

Despite the popularity of the Delphi technique little scientific literature exists to help guide the strategic planner in its proper application. In an effort to fill part of that void a comparative test was conducted using both intracompany and intercompany Delphi panels to forecast future events in the socio-political environment of business. The intent was to determine whether the two groups produced similar or different forecasts under virtually identical test conditions. Analysis of the data showed similarities in both the forecast estimates and the degree of consensus achieved across groups. Since strong similarities were demonstrated, the intracompany panel type is recommended to strategic planners based on its unique advantages.