Comment Judgment by Outcomes: Why Is It Interesting? A Reply to Hershey and Baron: "Judgment by Outcomes: When Is It Justified?"

Abstract

Hershey and Baron (1992) have criticized the validity of research on judgment by outcomes, which fail to establish that this judgment constitutes a bias. This reply argues that Hershey and Baron′s criticism is based on a probabilistic version of affirming the consequent and that judgment by outcomes can be studied independently of the issue of bias.