Does Feedback Improve the Accuracy of Recurrent Judgmental Forecasts?

Abstract

Feedback has been shown to be a useful tool for improving decision making (Balzeret al.,1992) and might also be a useful tool for improving the accuracy of recurrent judgmental forecasts. The objective of this study was to examine the impact of feedback on accuracy when forecasting time series with structural instabilities. We found that task information feedback (prompting on the underlying structure of the time series) gave significantly better forecasting performance than performance outcome feedback (prompting with graphical indicators of forecasting accuracy or prompting words expressing levels of forecasting accuracy). We also found that adding cognitive information feedback (prompting on desirable forecasting behaviors) to task information feedback did not significantly improve forecasting performance. Task information and task information feedback with added cognitive information feedback, but not performance outcome feedback, were superior to the baseline of providing simple outcome feedback (following each forecast with the actual value of the time series).