Lessons from the objective appraisal of programmes at the national level — implications of criteria and policy

Abstract

Some aspects are explored of the problem of formulating objective coherent science policies on the basis of the numerical methods of investment appraisal and cost-benefit analysis, and should be read in conjunction with the article by Craig Sinclair in this issue. The place R & D in the economy is considered using a model linking production, consumption and the quality of life with resource utilisation. Possible methods of developing an overall R & D strategy are dicussed and the problems inherent in multiple criteria and social value differences in time, place and sector of society are highlighted. The practical problems are explored in relation to a study of the costs of air pollution and its control. The application of decision analysis to justifiable R & D investment levels is explained and the impact of different possible strategies for control on the evaluation process considered. The author concludes that no overall coherent objective approach to national R & D resource allocation is yet possible but that sub-optimisation is worthwhile and possible in projects with economic costs and benefits. When social costs and benefits are introduced much greater care needs to be exercised and the impacts of proposed decisions need to be explored to ensure that they are not counterproductive. Some values ascribed to social benefits are themselves not absolute but have to be based on political decision which may itself be aided by evaluation.