Whisper forecasts of quarterly earnings per share☆

Abstract

We compare First Call analyst forecasts of earnings to unofficial forecasts commonly referred to as whispers. Our analysis indicates that whispers are more accurate proxies for market expectations of earnings than are First Call forecasts, consistent with the claim in the professional press that whispers are increasingly becoming the true market expectation of earnings. Further, trading strategies based on the relation between whisper and First Call forecasts earn abnormal returns. This suggests that whispers contain information not contained in First Call forecasts and that at least part of this information is impounded in price prior to the earnings release.