Time series momentum

Tobias J. Moskowitz, Yao Hua Ooi, Lasse Heje Pedersen

Journal of Financial Economics · 2012 · Volume 104 · Issue 2

DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2011.11.003

Abstract

I present closed-form solutions for prices, portfolios, and beliefs in a model where four types of investors trade assets over time: naive investors who learn via a social network, “fanatics” possibly spreading fake news, and rational short- and long-term investors. I show that fanatic and rational views dominate over time, and their relative importance depends on their following by influencers. Securities markets exhibit social network spillovers, large effects of influencers and thought leaders, bubbles, bursts of high volume, price momentum, fundamental momentum, and reversal. The model sheds new light on the GameStop event, historical bubbles, and asset markets more generally.

Keywords

Market efficiency, International financial markets, Trading volume, Asset pricing, Futures pricing

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