Associative memory, beliefs and market interactions
Benjamin Enke, Frederik Schwerter, Florian Zimmermann
Journal of Financial Economics · 2024 · Volume 157
DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2024.103853
Abstract
Recent theories and narratives highlight the potential role of associative recall in driving overreaction in expectations and market behavior. Based on a simple model, we test this idea through a series of experiments in which news are communicated with memorable contexts. Because the experimental participants predominantly remember those past news that get cued by new information, their beliefs about fundamentals strongly overreact. In a betting market experiment, associative recall translates into overreaction in market prices, which makes realized prices too extreme. Our results highlight the importance of associative memory for beliefs and financial decisions.
Keywords
Memory, Expectations, Beliefs, Bounded rationality, Associations
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