Technological capabilities, invisible infrastructure and the un-social construction of predictability: the overlooked fixed costs of useful research

Abstract

The paper explores the idea that unpredictability is a much more pervasive and important feature of technical change than is traditionally supposed. It explains how economically important interactions between scientific explanations and technology require the construction of very specific, artificially predictable conditions where explanations’ implications match technologies’ behaviour. The iterative construction of these localised predictable conditions from unpredictable starting materials relies on, generates, and is made easier by reusable social and physical infrastructure. The paper develops a non-tautological model of technological capabilities and provides a novel explanation for a range of empirical findings. Theoretical and policy implications are reported.