Internet and voting in the social media era: Evidence from a local broadband policy

Abstract

This paper analyzes the causal impact of broadband Internet on electoral outcomes beyond the introduction phase of broadband technology—that is, in the social media era—based on a local broadband policy. We exploit the staged infrastructure upgrade across rural municipalities in the Province of Trento (Italy), generating exogenous (spatial and temporal) variation in the provision of advanced broadband technology (ADSL2+). Using a difference-in-differences strategy, we find positive effects of ADSL2+ availability on overall electoral turnout at national parliamentary elections. Party vote analysis shows significant shifts across the ideological spectrum. These shifts, however, are likely transitory rather than persistent. Placebo estimates support a causal interpretation. Further evidence shows that the policy caused private broadband take-up at the extensive margin rather than a speed upgrade. We also provide evidence in support of social media use as a major mechanism for turnout effects.