Spillover Effects of the Opioid Epidemic on Consumer Finance

Abstract

I examine the impact of the opioid epidemic on subprime auto lending. Using a difference-in-differences framework, I find that county-level increases in opioid abuse cause an increase in loan defaults. Moreover, I find that traditional credit scoring attributes (e.g., FICO score) fail to predict loan performance deterioration associated with opioid addiction. The weak predictive performance of traditional credit measures and the resulting higher default rates generate a negative externality for borrowers in opioid-afflicted areas, as evidenced by 5.7% higher loan costs for subprime borrowers.