Predicting infrequent behavior: Clarifying the impact on false-positive rates

Abstract

The false-positive rate (i.e., individuals who are incorrectly identified as unqualified, ineligible, maladjusted, etc.) has been used to argue against the value of psychological tests (or other screening procedures) for various applications, including personnel selection, when base rates are low. Although this argument may have merit in certain situations, it is generally inappropriate when targeted at the use of tests for personnel selection. Flaws in the "false-positive" argument highlight the need to distinguish between absolute and relative decisions and to consider the appropriate control or comparative condition when examining the impact of a psychological test on decision errors. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved)