Experience and prior probability in a complex decision task

Abstract

6 experienced and 6 naive male undergraduate Ss evaluated probabilistic data, determined sources of data generation, and predicted subsequent data in a complex decision task. Experience and prior probability were combined factorially. Results indicated that experienced Ss (1) were less conservative data evaluators, (2) determined data sources on the basis of fewer data samples, (3) were more sensitive to prior-probability values, and (4) adopted a maximization strategy in prediction more consistently than did naive Ss. The importance of using trained personnel in the evaluation of realistic decision capabilities and the need for caution in generalizing from data obtained from naive Ss who serve in most laboratory studies of decision making are discussed. (17 ref.) (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2025 APA, all rights reserved)