The Trentile Deviation Method of Weather Forecast Evaluation

Abstract

This article outlines a method originated by the author during World War II for evaluating short range weather forecasts. An interesting feature is the use of “deviational penalty scores” to adjust for the relative ease or difficulty of forecasting for varying weather situations. A number of other studies on weather forecast evaluation by other authors lead to different methods of analysis (see references at end of article). The author has encountered situations in other fields where variations of the method proved useful. As an instance, some elements of this method were used in designing a scoring procedure for rating bombing proficiency of air crews during the Korean War. * The author is particularly indebted to Lewis T. Reinwald of the Corporation for Economic & Industrial Research for suggestions made for this article.