A Favorable Side Bet in Nevada Baccarat

Abstract

A winning strategy is developed for the nine to one side bet on a Banker natural nine. Let n be the number of cards that remain for play. Let t be the number of nines that remain for play. If p ( n, t ) is the probability of a natural nine when n and t are given, then p ( n, t ) is greater than 0.1 frequently enough to make the counting of n and t the basis for a practical winning strategy. The Kelly criterion (play to maximize the expected value of the log of capital) is used to determine bet sizes for favorable situations. Similar strategies are developed for the side bets on Banker natural eight, Player natural nine, and Player natural eight. The relationships between the four side bets are analyzed. It is shown that the main (roughly 1:1) bets on Banker and Player occasionally favor the player. There are theoretical favorable strategies but none exists which is currently practical.