Oscillatory Growth in Three Nations

Abstract

Both the definition of economic activity and the definition of periodicity seem to determine whether there are long tides in economic affairs. Spectral analysis of growth rates finds no long waves in the U.S., U.K., and Sweden, but this is consistent with the appearance of long classical (upcross) swings in the deviations from trend of several raw data series. These upcross oscillations may not be independent components of economic evolution but merely distorted reflections of trend growth processes.