The Effect of Air Pollution upon Mortality: A Consideration of Distributed Lag Models

Abstract

The relationship between daily mortality and urban air pollution is considered in a regression context. Several distributed lag models are examined in order to discover a possible delayed mortality response. The results of those models with geometrically declining lag coefficients are consistent with those of the other lag models. Adjustment is made for serial correlation, and the consequences of measurement error are explored. Application of the various models to four to six different time periods allows an examination of the consistency of these models. Results for all time periods indicate associations between daily mortality and air pollution values. The distributed lag models suggest that any lagged effect is negligible in comparison with the immediate response.