Bayes Methods for Combining the Results of Cancer Studies in Humans and other Species

Abstract

We propose a class of Bayesian statistical methods for interspecies extrapolation of dose-response functions. The methods distinguish formally between the conventional sampling error within each dose-response experiment and a novel error of uncertain relevance between experiments. Through a system of hierarchical prior distributions similar to that of Lindley and Smith (1972), the dose-response data from many substances and species are used to estimate the interexperimental error. The data, the estimated error of interspecies extrapolation, and prior biological information on the relations between species or between substances each contribute to the posterior densities of human dose-response. We apply our methods to an illustrative problem in the estimation of human lung cancer risk from various environmental emissions.