Survival Models for Fertility Evaluation

Abstract

Two proportional hazards models for cohort fertility evaluation are constructed. Time-dependent covariates describe sources of heterogeneity between and within women regarding fertility characteristics. In the first model, U.S. birth rates specific to maternal age, race, parity, and birth cohort are used as underlying hazard rates. Covariate effects are estimated by maximizing the full likelihood. In the second model, covariate effects are estimated via Cox regression with stratified underlying hazard rates regarded as unknown nuisance parameters. The two models are illustrated with an evaluation of the fertility histories of the wives of workers at a manufacturing plant with potential for hazardous exposure. Adjustments to the U.S. birth rates for maternal age and parity zero experience are required with the first approach. Then, despite differences in the model-specific estimation procedures, the point estimates of the exposure effect and the estimated standard errors from the two models are practically equivalent.