Estimating Hot Numbers and Testing Uniformity for the Lottery

Abstract

We consider the problem of estimating probabilities for the different numbers in a lottery when the winning numbers are selected sequentially without replacement. Numerical methods are developed to compute maximum likelihood estimates of the probabilities and their variance-covariance matrix based on observed outcomes. The generalized likelihood ratio statistic –2 ln(λ) for testing equiprobable numbers is also given. The methods are applied to a data set from the Lotto America lottery. The properties of the procedure are studied by simulation.