Rebel Tactics

Abstract

I study a model of mobilization and rebel tactical choice. Rebel leaders choose between conventional tactics that are heavily reliant on mobilization, irregular tactics that are less so, and withdrawal from conflict. The model yields the following results, among others. Increased nonviolent opportunity has a nonmonotone effect on the use of irregular tactics. Conflict has option value, so irregular campaigns last longer than the rebels’ short-term interest dictates, especially in volatile military environments. By demonstrating lack of rebel capacity and diminishing mobilization, successful counterinsurgencies may increase irregular violence. Conflict begets conflict by eroding outside options, thereby increasing mobilization.