Macroeconomics after Lucas

Abstract

This sequel to Lucas and Sargent (1978) tells how equilibrium Markov processes underlie much applied dynamic economics today. It recalls how Robert E. Lucas Jr. saw Keynesian and rational expectations revolutions as interconnected transformations of economic theories and econometric practices. It describes rules that Lucas used to guide and constrain his research by restricting himself to equilibrium Markov processes and to conserving quantitative successes achieved by previous researchers, including those attained by quantitative Keynesian macroeconometric modelers.