Empirical Investigation of a Sufficient Statistic for Monetary Shocks

Abstract

In a broad class of sticky-price models, the non-neutrality of nominal shocks is captured by a simple sufficient statistic: the ratio of the kurtosis of the price change distribution over the frequency of price changes. We test the sufficient statistic proposition using data for a large sample of products representative of the French economy. We first extend the theory to allow for empirically relevant monetary shocks with a transitory predictable component. We then use the microdata to measure kurtosis and frequency for about 120 producer price indices industries and 220 consumer price indices categories. We use a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model to measure the industries’ response to monetary shocks, under alternative identification schemes. The estimated degree of non-neutrality correlates with the kurtosis and the frequency consistently with the predictions of the theory. Several robustness checks are discussed.