Savings Gluts and Financial Fragility

Abstract

We propose an incentive-based theory of how a savings glut produces financial fragility. Originators must be incentivized to produce high-quality assets. Assets are distributed to informed intermediaries or uninformed investors. A savings glut reduces origination incentives by compressing spreads between the prices paid for high-quality assets by informed intermediaries and prices paid by uninformed investors for generic assets. The narrowing of spreads relaxes intermediaries’ borrowing constraints, resulting in higher leverage. This generates financial fragility : intermediaries are more likely to become insolvent if unforeseen losses arise. Our model offers a coherent narrative of the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis.