Narrative Asset Pricing: Interpretable Systematic Risk Factors from News Text

Abstract

We estimate a narrative factor pricing model from news text of The Wall Street Journal . Our empirical method integrates topic modeling (LDA), latent factor analysis (IPCA), and variable selection (group lasso). Narrative factors achieve higher out-of-sample Sharpe ratios and smaller pricing errors than standard characteristic-based factor models and predict future investment opportunities in a manner consistent with the ICAPM. We derive an interpretation of the estimated risk factors from narratives in the underlying article text. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online