Earnings Extrapolation and Predictable Stock Market Returns

Abstract

The U.S. stock market’s return during the first month of a quarter correlates strongly with returns in future months, but the correlation is negative if the future month is the first month of a quarter, and positive if it isn’t. These correlations offset, consistent with the well-known near-zero unconditional autocorrelation, yet they are pervasive, present across industries and countries. The pattern accords with a model in which investors extrapolate announced earnings to predict future earnings, not recognizing that earnings in the first month of a quarter are discretely less predictable than in prior months. Survey data support the model.