Mutual Fund's R2 as Predictor of Performance

Abstract

We propose that fund performance can be predicted by its R 2 , obtained from a regression of its returns on a multifactor benchmark model. Lower R 2 indicates greater selectivity, and it significantly predicts better performance. Stock funds sorted into lowest-quintile lagged R 2 and highest-quintile lagged alpha produce significant annual alpha of 3.8%. Across funds, R 2 is positively associated with fund size and negatively associated with its expenses and manager's tenure.