Epidemics in heterogeneous communities: estimation ofR0and secure vaccination coverage
Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology) · 2001 · Volume 63 · Issue 4
Abstract
A stochastic multitype model for the spread of an infectious disease in a community of heterogeneous individuals is analysed. In particular, estimates ofR0(the basic reproduction number) and the critical vaccination coverage are derived, where estimation is based on final size data of an outbreak in the community. It is shown that these key parameters cannot be estimated consistently from data; only upper and lower bounds can be estimated. Confidence regions for the upper bounds are derived, thus giving conservative estimates ofR0and the fractions necessary to vaccinate.
Keywords
Basic reproduction number, Consistency, Final size data, Multitype epidemic, Vaccination coverage, Vaccine efficacy
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