Bank Competition Amid Digital Disruption: Implications for Financial Inclusion

Abstract

We examine how digital disruption affects bank competition using the staggered rollout of 3G mobile networks. 3G expansion increased mobile banking adoption among tech-savvy households, reducing branch networks—especially in younger counties. Banks' strategies diverged: Less branch-reliant banks closed branches and competed on price, while more branch-reliant banks maintained branches but raised spreads. A structural model shows that perceived digital service improvements among younger consumers drove these shifts, reducing welfare for older savers. Counterfactuals demonstrate that subsidizing adoption for older savers can cost-effectively reduce these disparities, facilitating a smoother digital transition.