Judgmental Forecasting: Cognitive Reflection and Decision Speed
Brent Moritz, Enno Siemsen, Mirko Kremer
Production and Operations Management · 2014 · Volume 23 · Issue 7
Abstract
This research analyzes how individual differences affect performance in judgmental time-series forecasting. Decision makers with the ability to balance intuitive judgment with cognitive deliberation, as measured by the cognitive reflection test, tend to have lower forecast errors. This relationship holds when controlling for intelligence. Furthermore, forecast errors increase for very fast or very slow decisions. We provide evidence that forecast performance can be improved by manipulating decision speed.
Keywords
forecasting, behavioral operations, decision speed, cognitive reflection
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