Probabilistic Models of Consumer Buying Behavior

Abstract

Does it make sense to classify consumers as users and nonusers? As heavy and light users? As users of brand X rather than brand Y? Do American consumers fit into such neat categories? Or is it likely that their brand choice behavior is more subtle, less susceptible to exact categorization? This article shows how traditional, static approaches are inadequate for predicting consumer behavior. It offers an alternative: the dynamic, probabilistic approach which can sharpen analysis and yield better predictive models.