Building a model for scoring 20 or more runs in a baseball game
Michael R. Huber, Rodney X. Sturdivant
The Annals of Applied Statistics · 2010 · Volume 4 · Issue 2
Abstract
How often can we expect a Major League Baseball team to score at least 20 runs in a single game? Considered a rare event in baseball, the outcome of scoring at least 20 runs in a game has occurred 224 times during regular season games since 1901 in the American and National Leagues. Each outcome is modeled as a Poisson process; the time of occurrence of one of these events does not affect the next future occurrence. Using various distributions, probabilities of events are generated, goodness-of-fit tests are conducted, and predictions of future events are offered. The statistical package R is employed for analysis.
Keywords
exponential distribution, Goodness-of-fit test, memoryless property, Poisson process, rare baseball events
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