Estimating Covid-19 transmission time using Hawkes point processes
The Annals of Applied Statistics · 2023 · Volume 17 · Issue 4
Abstract
The question addressed here is whether, using Hawkes models. the distribution of SARS-CoV-2 (Covid-19) transmission times can be estimated accurately with only case-count data. We fit Hawkes models with varying productivities to each of the 50 United States individually, estimating for each state a transmission time density, both nonparametrically and using a normal approximation. We find that, for nearly all states, the estimated transmission times are centered near seven days with a standard deviation of approximately one day. Compared to previous reports, the results here suggest that transmission times for SARS-CoV-2 are somewhat shorter, on average, and the distribution is less diffuse, though the results also suggest the possibility of transmission occurring on the first day of exposure.
Keywords
Disease epidemics, Hawkes model, point process, Self-exciting
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