A novel estimator of Earth’s curvature (Allowing for inference as well)

David R. Bell, Olivier Ledoit, Michael Wolf

The Annals of Applied Statistics · 2024 · Volume 18 · Issue 1

Abstract

This paper estimates the curvature of the Earth, defined as one over its radius, without relying on physical measurements. The orthodox model states that the Earth is (nearly) spherical with a curvature of π/20,000km. By contrast, the heterodox flat-Earth model stipulates a curvature of zero. Abstracting from the well-worn arguments for and against both models, rebuttals and counter-rebuttals ad infinitum, we propose a novel statistical methodology based on verifiable flight times along regularly scheduled commercial airline routes; this methodology allows for both estimating and making inference for Earth’s curvature. In particular, a formal hypothesis test resolutely rejects the flat-Earth model, whereas it does not reject the orthodox spherical-Earth model.

Keywords

Flat Earth, flight times, nonlinear least squares, ‎trigonometry

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