A robust Bayesian meta-analysis for estimating the Hubble constant via time delay cosmography
The Annals of Applied Statistics · 2024 · Volume 18 · Issue 4
Abstract
We propose a Bayesian meta-analysis to infer the current expansion rate of the Universe, called the Hubble constant (H0), via time delay cosmography. Inputs of the meta-analysis are estimates of two properties for each pair of gravitationally lensed images; time delay and Fermat potential difference estimates with their standard errors. A meta-analysis can be appealing in practice because obtaining each estimate from even a single lens system involves substantial human efforts, and thus estimates are often separately obtained and published. Moreover, numerous estimates are expected to be available once the Rubin Observatory starts monitoring thousands of strong gravitational lens systems. This work focuses on combining these estimates from independent studies to infer H0 in a robust manner. The robustness is crucial because currently up to eight lens systems are used to infer H0, and thus any biased input can severely affect the resulting H0 estimate. For this purpose we adopt Student’s t error for the input estimates. We investigate properties of the resulting H0 estimate via two simulation studies with realistic imaging data. It turns out that the meta-analysis can infer H0 with subpercent bias and about 1% level of coefficient of variation, even when 30% of inputs are manipulated to be outliers. We also apply the meta-analysis to three gravitationally lensed systems to obtain an H0 estimate and compare it with existing estimates. An R package h0 is publicly available for fitting the proposed meta-analysis.
Keywords
cosmology, Fermat potential, Gravitational lensing, hierarchical model
Enable JavaScript for citation tools and additional paper interactions.