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Bayesian models for sparse probability tables

Jim Q. Smith, Catriona M. Queen

The Annals of Statistics · 1996 · Volume 24 · Issue 5

DOI: 10.1214/aos/1069362316

Abstract

We wish to make inferences about the conditional probabilities $p(y|x)$, many of which are zero, when the distribution of X is unknown and one observes only a multinomial sample of the Y variates. To do this, fixed likelihood ratio models and quasi-incremental distributions are defined. It is shown that quasi-incremental distributions are intimately linked to decomposable graphs and that these graphs can guide us to transformations of X and Y which admit a conjugate Bayesian analysis on a reparametrization of the conditional probabilities of interest.

Keywords

62F15, 62H17, Bayesian probability estimation, constraint graph, Contingency tables, decomposable graph, generalized Dirichlet distributions, separation of likelihood

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