Forecasting Gasoline Prices Using Consumer Surveys
Soren T. Anderson, Ryan Kellogg, James M. Sallee, Richard T. Curtin
American Economic Review · 2011 · Volume 101 · Issue 3
Abstract
This paper analyzes the predictive power of a new data set of consumer gasoline price forecasts taken from the Michigan Survey of Consumers (MSC). MSC data generally perform as well as a no-change forecast in predicting future gasoline prices, and they substantially out-perform the no-change forecast during the recent economic crisis, during which time they track futures market prices. Finally, the cross-respondent dispersion of the MSC forecasts increases substantially during the economic crisis, paralleling the large increase in price volatility at this time.
Keywords
Forecasting Methods, Simulation Methods, Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis, Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels, Energy: Demand and Supply, Energy Forecasting
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