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Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusian Epoch

Quamrul Ashraf, Oded Galor

American Economic Review · 2011 · Volume 101 · Issue 5

DOI: 10.1257/aer.101.5.2003

Abstract

This paper examines the central hypothesis of the influential Malthusian theory, according to which improvements in the technological environment during the preindustrial era had generated only temporary gains in income per capita, eventually leading to a larger, but not significantly richer, population. Exploiting exogenous sources of cross-country variations in land productivity and the level of technological advancement, the analysis demonstrates that, in accordance with the theory, technological superiority and higher land productivity had significant positive effects on population density but insignificant effects on the standard of living, during the time period 1-1500 CE. (JEL N10, N30, N50, O10, O40, O50)

Keywords

Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Growth and Fluctuations: General, International, or Comparative, Economic History: Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy: General, Economic History: Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment, and Extractive Industries: General, Economic Development: General, Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General, Economywide Country Studies: General

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