The Future of US Economic Growth
John G. Fernald, Charles I. Jones
American Economic Review · 2014 · Volume 104 · Issue 5
Abstract
Modern growth theory suggests that more than three-quarters of growth since 1950 reflects rising educational attainment and research intensity. As these transition dynamics fade, US economic growth is likely to slow at some point. However, the rise of China, India, and other emerging economies may allow another few decades of rapid growth in world researchers. Finally, and more speculatively, the shape of the idea production function introduces a fundamental uncertainty into the future of growth. For example, the possibility that artificial intelligence will allow machines to replace workers to some extent could lead to higher growth in the future.
Keywords
Macroeconomics: Production, Business Fluctuations, Cycles, Human Capital, Skills, Occupational Choice, Labor Productivity, Economic History: Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics, Industrial Structure, Growth, Fluctuations: U.S., Canada: Pre-1913, Canada: 1913-, Technological Change: Choices and Consequences, Diffusion Processes, Measurement of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence
Enable JavaScript for citation tools and additional paper interactions.