Trafficking Networks and the Mexican Drug War
American Economic Review · 2015 · Volume 105 · Issue 6
Abstract
Drug trade-related violence has escalated dramatically in Mexico since 2007, and recent years have also witnessed large-scale efforts to combat trafficking, spearheaded by Mexico's conservative PAN party. This study examines the direct and spillover effects of Mexican policy toward the drug trade. Regression discontinuity estimates show that drug-related violence increases substantially after close elections of PAN mayors. Empirical evidence suggests that the violence reflects rival traffickers' attempts to usurp territories after crackdowns have weakened incumbent criminals. Moreover, the study uses a network model of trafficking routes to show that PAN victories divert drug traffic, increasing violence along alternative drug routes. (JEL D72, D85, K42, O17, Z13)
Keywords
Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior, Network Formation and Analysis: Theory, Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law, Formal and Informal Sectors, Shadow Economy, Institutional Arrangements, Economic Sociology, Economic Anthropology, Social and Economic Stratification
Enable JavaScript for citation tools and additional paper interactions.