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Why Is Pollution from US Manufacturing Declining? The Roles of Environmental Regulation, Productivity, and Trade

Joseph S. Shapiro, Reed Walker

American Economic Review · 2018 · Volume 108 · Issue 12

DOI: 10.1257/aer.20151272

Abstract

Between 1990 and 2008, air pollution emissions from U.S. manufacturing fell by 60 percent despite a substantial increase in manufacturing output. We show that these emissions reductions are primarily driven by within-product changes in emissions intensity rather than changes in output or in the composition of products produced. We then develop and estimate a quantitative model linking trade with the environment to better understand the economic forces driving these changes. Our estimates suggest that the implicit pollution tax that manufacturers face doubled between 1990 and 2008. These changes in environmental regulation, rather than changes in productivity and trade, account for most of the emissions reductions.

Keywords

Trade and Environment, Taxation and Subsidies: Externalities, Redistributive Effects, Environmental Taxes and Subsidies, Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General, Pollution Control Adoption and Costs, Distributional Effects, Employment Effects, Air Pollution, Water Pollution, Noise, Hazardous Waste, Solid Waste, Recycling, Environment and Development, Environment and Trade, Sustainability, Environmental Accounts and Accounting, Environmental Equity, Population Growth, Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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