Heterogeneous Global Booms and Busts
American Economic Review · 2022 · Volume 112 · Issue 7
Abstract
We investigate the heterogeneous boom and bust patterns across countries that emerge as a result of global shocks. Our analysis sheds light on the emergence of core and periphery countries, and the joint determination of the depth of recessions and tightness of credit across countries. The model implies that interest rates are similar across core and periphery countries in booms, with larger credit and output growth in periphery countries. However, a common global shock that leads to a credit crunch across the globe gives rise to a sharper spike in interest rates and a deeper recession in periphery countries, while a credit flight to the core alleviates the adverse consequences in these countries.
Keywords
Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Wealth, Business Fluctuations, Cycles, Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects, Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy, International Business Cycles, Financial Crises, International Financial Markets
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