Asymmetric Attention
Alexandre N. Kohlhas, Ansgar Walther
American Economic Review · 2021 · Volume 111 · Issue 9
Abstract
We document that the expectations of households, firms, and professional forecasters in standard surveys simultaneously extrapolate from recent events and underreact to new information. Existing models of expectation formation, whether behavioral or rational, cannot account for these observations. We develop a rational theory of extrapolation based on limited attention, which is consistent with this evidence. In particular, we show that limited, asymmetric attention to procyclical variables can explain the coexistence of extrapolation and underreactions. We illustrate these mechanisms in a microfounded macroeconomic model, which generates expectations consistent with the survey data, and show that asymmetric attention increases business cycle fluctuations.
Keywords
Forecasting Models, Simulation Methods, Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief, Unawareness, Expectations, Speculations, Macroeconomics: Production, Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications, Business Fluctuations, Cycles
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