Identifying Preference for Early Resolution from Asset Prices
Hengjie Ai, Ravi Bansal, Hongye Guo, Amir Yaron
American Economic Review · 2026 · Volume 116 · Issue 6
Abstract
This paper develops an asset market-based test for preference for the timing of resolution of uncertainty. Our main theorem provides a characterization of preference for early resolution of uncertainty in terms of the risk premium realized during the period when the informativeness of macroeconomic announcements is resolved. Empirically, we find support for preference for early resolution of uncertainty based on evidence on the dynamics of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options before Federal Open Market Committee announcements.
Keywords
Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty, Search, Learning, Information and Knowledge, Communication, Belief, Unawareness, Contingent Pricing, Futures Pricing, option pricing, Information and Market Efficiency, Event Studies, Insider Trading, Behavioral Finance: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets [Neurofinance]
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