Anatomy of the Phillips Curve: Micro Evidence and Macro Implications
Luca Gagliardone, Mark Gertler, Simone Lenzu, Joris Tielens
American Economic Review · 2025 · Volume 115 · Issue 11
Abstract
We develop a bottom-up approach to estimate the slope of the primitive form of the New Keynesian Phillips curve, which features marginal cost as the real activity variable. Using quarterly micro data on prices, costs, and output, we estimate dynamic pass-through regressions that identify the slope as a function of primitive parameters. We find a high slope for the cost-based Phillips curve, which contrasts with the low estimates of the conventional output gap–based formulation found in the literature. We reconcile by showing that the output elasticity of marginal cost is low, at least during moderate inflation periods (e.g., pre-pandemic).
Keywords
Model Construction and Estimation, General Aggregative Models: Keynes, Keynesian, Post-Keynesian, Modern Monetary Theory, Macroeconomics: Production, Price Level, Inflation, Deflation, Business Fluctuations, Cycles, Industry Studies: Manufacturing: General
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