Spatial Spillovers of Conflict in Somalia
Marco Alfano, Thomas Cornelissen
American Economic Review · 2026 · Volume 116 · Issue 6
Abstract
Conflict along transportation routes during Somalia's al-Shabaab insurgency significantly increases maize prices at distant locations, decreasing food security, health, and education. Estimated conflict risk has strong price effects independently of realized conflict, highlighting the importance of safety concerns. A model of least-cost route choice in the presence of conflict reveals that more and shorter alternative routes to circumvent conflict can lower prices but their effectiveness diminishes as violence becomes more correlated across routes. Alternatively, securing key transportation routes would alleviate price increases. A market access approach suggests spatial spillovers of conflict also matter for prices of more general baskets of food and nonfood items.
Keywords
Conflict, Conflict Resolution, Alliances, Revolutions, Health and Economic Development, Education and Economic Development, Economic Development: Human Resources, Human Development, Income Distribution, Migration, Formal and Informal Sectors, Shadow Economy, Institutional Arrangements, Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis, Prices, Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion, Travel Time, Safety and Accidents, Transportation Noise
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