Home Price Expectations and Spending: Evidence from a Field Experiment
Felix Chopra, Christopher Roth, Johannes Wohlfart
American Economic Review · 2025 · Volume 115 · Issue 7
Abstract
We conduct a field experiment with US households to study how expectations about long-run home price growth shape spending decisions. We exogenously vary survey respondents' expectations by providing different expert forecasts. Homeowners' spending, measured using rich home-scanner data, is inelastic to home price expectations. By contrast, renters reduce their spending when expecting higher home price growth. These patterns reflect positive wealth effects for owners from higher future wealth and negative income effects for both groups due to higher future housing costs. Our study highlights consequences of asset price growth and long-term expectations about the economy for household behavior.
Keywords
Field Experiments, Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis, Expectations, Speculations, Micro-Based Behavioral Economics: Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making, Household Finance: Household Saving, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth, Housing Supply and Markets
Enable JavaScript for citation tools and additional paper interactions.