Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond
American Economic Review · 2000 · Volume 90 · Issue 4
Abstract
This paper develops a unified growth model that captures the historical evolution of population, technology, and output. It encompasses the endogenous transition between three regimes that have characterized economic development. The economy evolves from a Malthusian regime, where technological progress is slow and population growth prevents any sustained rise in income per capita, into a Post-Malthusian regime, where technological progress rises and population growth absorbs only part of output growth. Ultimately, a demographic transition reverses the positive relationship between income and population growth, and the economy enters a Modern Growth regime, with reduced population growth and sustained income growth.
Keywords
One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models, Demographic Trends and Forecasts, General Migration, Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
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