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Secular Stagnation: The Long View

Barry Eichengreen

American Economic Review · 2015 · Volume 105 · Issue 5

DOI: 10.1257/aer.p20151104

Abstract

Four explanations for secular stagnation are distinguished: a rise in global saving, slow population growth that makes investment less attractive, adverse trends in technology and productivity growth, and a decline in the relative price of investment goods. A long view from economic history is most supportive of the last of these four views.

Keywords

Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Wealth, Macroeconomics: Production, Employment, Unemployment, Wages, Intergenerational Income Distribution, Aggregate Human Capital, Aggregate Labor Productivity, Price Level, Inflation, Deflation, Business Fluctuations, Cycles, Empirical Studies of Economic Growth, Aggregate Productivity, Cross-Country Output Convergence

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