Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indices Based on Nowcast and Forecast Error Distributions
Barbara Rossi, Tatevik Sekhposyan
American Economic Review · 2015 · Volume 105 · Issue 5
Abstract
We propose new indices to measure macroeconomic uncertainty. The indices measure how unexpected a realization of a representative macroeconomic variable is relative to the unconditional forecast error distribution. We use forecast error distributions based on the nowcasts and forecasts of the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We further compare the new indices with those proposed in the literature and assess their macroeconomic impact.
Keywords
Index Numbers and Aggregation, Leading indicators, Forecasting Models, Simulation Methods, Macroeconomics: Production, Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
Enable JavaScript for citation tools and additional paper interactions.